the p(doom) market.

Trade the takeoff

PDOOM-PERP

Perpetual

7.84%

−516 bpspast 24h

AI-caused human extinction or permanent, irreversible human disempowerment by 2100.

Perp Oracle
Long p(doom) Short p(doom)

Jacob Coxon leaves Anthropic

Jacob Coxon@hilbertspaess
I resigned from Anthropic today. I spent the last three years doing pretraining research at both OpenAI and Anthropic. Neither company is acting responsibly. They are racing straight to self-improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives. More thoughts below.
ILLUSTRATIVE REACTION

5.6% → 11.10%

+550 bps

An illustrative rise of 550 basis points in the fictional $PDOOM market following Jacob Coxon’s post. Prices and the reaction are illustrative.

View post on 𝕏

p(doom) market.

Trade p(doom).

Long or short humanity’s perceived probability of AI catastrophe. A perpetual market on a consensus estimate, with no expiry or resolution.

Probability that AI causes human extinction or permanent, irreversible human disempowerment by 2100.

Market
PDOOM-PERP · $PDOOM
Venue
MNX
Quote
0–100%
Underlying
External p(doom) oracle
Contract
No expiry or resolution
Status
Visual concept
Long

p(doom) goes up

Short

p(doom) goes down

Buy at 4%, sell at 12%
+8 points × position size

Fictional market. All prices are illustrative; no trades are placed.

The p(doom) oracle

PROPOSED METHODOLOGY

The underlying index tracks a consensus estimate of one precise question:

Probability that AI causes human extinction or permanent, irreversible human disempowerment by 2100.

A transparent composite

Combine liquid, credible sources that measure the same question, using a weighted median.

p(doom) = weighted median (P₁, P₂, … Pₙ)

A slow exponential moving average and bounded index moves could limit the impact of a sudden move on a small forecasting venue. Source selection, weights, and safeguards remain to be defined.

Published risk estimates

AI Socratic’s Pace the Frontier ↗ collects attributed estimates. Their questions and dates differ; policy-position scores are not doom probabilities.

Explore 7 estimates

Reference material only. These estimates are not inputs to the illustrative 8.00% index.

Perp price ≠ oracle index

Traders can price in the next frontier event before consensus shifts. The proposed funding mechanism would encourage the perp to track the index over time.

Perp price7.84%
Oracle index8.00%

Illustrative values. No external oracle is connected to this draft.